Cup of Coffee: December 8, 2022

Good morning! And welcome to Free Thursday!

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Thanks, all. Now on to a very, very busy day at the Winter Meetings.

The Daily Briefing

Aaron Judge signs with the Yankees

Pour one out for Carlos Baerga’s journalism career, because he whiffed here: Aaron Judge agreed to a nine-year, $360 million deal to return to the Yankees. The deal came together late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and news broke about it at around 5:30AM, Winter Meetings time yesterday.

The deal, which carries with it a full no-trade clause, sets a new record for average annual value for a position player, shattering Mike Trout's $35.54 million/year deal. The only other guys making more than Judge on an annual basis are Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, each of whom will make $43.3 million annually over a much shorter term. It’s the third-largest overall deal in baseball history

All of this comes about nine months after Judge rejected an offer of seven-years and $213.5 million from the Yankees, which means that Judge got an additional two years and a whopping $146.5 million more by betting on himself heading into the 2022 season.

The Yankees should be praised for making this deal but, really, they had no choice. However it is you want to define the “V” in “MVP,” by the numbers there was no player in baseball who was more responsible for his team’s success last year than Judge. If the Yankees had let him walk their offense, barring some MAJOR free agent in-filling, would’ve been a smoking crater. And honestly, I don’t think it would’ve been practically possible to replace Judge with what is out there on the market, at least at this price.

We have talked before about the risks Judge faces going forward. His age. His size. His health history. Now add to that the major, major dollars owed to him. But it’s the New York Yankees who owe those dollars and they can absolutely afford it, even if he turns into a pumpkin with a bad back in 2026. In the meantime, though, the Yankees keep their giant and now have another couple of months to add the other pieces they need to stay atop the AL East and remain serious contenders.

The Padres sign Xander Bogaerts

The Padres have shortstop Fernando Tatís under contract. While he was injured/suspended last year Ha-Seong Kim proved to be so good defensively at short that there has been considerable talk about keeping him there and playing Tatís at another position when he comes off his suspension. Third base, of course, can’t work for either of them due to the presence there of Manny Machado. That’s a lot to sort out! Good thing it’s not more complicated than that!

Wait, it’s more complicated than that. Because the Padres signed free agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract late last night, per Jeff Passan at ESPN. It includes a full no-trade clause and no opt-outs. That’s a hell of a commitment to a guy who just turned 30, but given the deal Trea Turner struck with Philly — and the trouble the Padres have had getting big free agents to bite so far this offseason, which we’ll discuss later — it’s apparently what it took.

Bogaerts is one of baseball's most consistent hitters, having posted an OPS+ of between 128 and 139 each of the last five years. This past year he hit .307/.377/.456 (131 OPS+) with 15 homers. The decline in power, exemplified by his lowest slugging percentage and homer total since 2017, is a bit worrisome, though, and there’s a very good chance that he’ll need to move off of shortstop and over to third base at some point, but that’s a problem for a later day.

For now, the infield logjam in San Diego will likely be resolved by Bogaerts remaining at shortstop, Ha-Seong Kim moving to second, second baseman Jake Cronenworth moving over to first, Tatís shifting to right field and Juan Soto going to left field.

Got that? Good, because there will be a test later.

The Padres were last minute Judge suitors too

While the final bidding for Aaron Judge’s services was assumed to consist of a battle between the Yankees and Judge’s hometown (more or less) San Francisco Giants, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Padres offered Judge a 10-year, $400 million deal at the last minute. If true, this marks the second time in less than a week the Padres reportedly made a larger bid to a top free agent than he ultimately took to go elsewhere. Specifically, Trea Turner, who was reported to have turned down a $341+ million offer from the Padres in order to sign a $300 million pact with Philly.

It’s possible that those offers had a lot of caveats or deferred money or what have you in them. It’s also possible, I suppose, that the reporting on all of that has some flaws. We’ll hear about that eventually if that’s the case. Assuming those reports were true, though, and that the offers were not full of gimmicks, all I can think is that, while Xander Bogaerts has his head on straight, Judge and Turner simply do not like perpetually perfect weather, amazing food, and living in one of the most pleasant cities in the country.

I mean, maybe I’m crazy but, personally, I’d take even less than $300 million to move to San Diego. I’m a bargain, just like Bogaerts.

A hack’s take on the Judge deal

I can’t read the story because it’s for subscribers only and I’ll be damned if I’ll give a red cent to a publication that thinks Bill Madden’s work is worth paying for. All I’ll say at this point, then, is that:

• Madden is a scab;

• Whatever his reporting bonafides once were, Madden is one of the worst analysts/commentators around; and

• Madden, at least back in the day, had a pattern of being the mouthpiece for Randy Levine and other members of the Yankees front office.

The last item here is the most relevant, I figure. Whether he’s actually laundering in-house opposition to an Aaron Judge deal that was, pretty clearly, pushed forward by Hal Steinbrenner, or if Madden is just lazily auto-piloting to his usual anti-labor, anti-player position is unknowable, I reckon. But it’s long been the case that the guy simply does not believe players — or any workers for that matter — deserve to be paid. Ergo, he thinks, the deal must be dumb.

Whatever the case, Madden thinking that is even more evidence that it’s, actually, a pretty good deal.

Red Sox sign Kenley Jansen

The Boston Red Sox, who have been rivaled by only the Padres in “we almost signed him!” stories actually signed a couple of guys yesterday. The first one: three-time All-Star closer Kenley Jansen. It’s a two-year contract worth $32 million.

Jansen, 35, spent this past season with Atlanta, for whom he led the National League with 41 saves. He was basically the same old Kenley Jansen we’ve usually seen in his post-peak years, striking out 12 batters per nine innings — he used to punch out 13 or 14 per nine during his Dodgers heyday — and occasionally giving fans the vapors because of some untimely walks. Still, he’s pretty reliable compared to most closers who are, on the whole an erratic lot.

Jansen is the third reliever the Red Sox have signed this offseason, joining lefty Joely Rodríguez and righty Chris Martin. When this item came down I asked myself whether Boston would, eventually, sign a position player. And then a few hours later they did . . .

Red Sox sign Masataka Yoshida

Late in the afternoon the Sox signed outfielder Masataka Yoshida, previously of the NPB champion the Orix Buffaloes, to a five-year, $90 million contract. In addition Yoshida’s contract the Sox will pay a $15.4 million posting fee to the Buffaloes, bringing the total outlay to $105.4 million.

Yoshida, a 29 year-old left fielder, has won the last two Pacific League batting titles. He hit .335/.447/.561 with 21 home runs, 80 walks and just 41 strikeouts in 508 plate appearances in 2022 and is a career .326/.419/.538 hitter 135 home runs in parts of seven seasons. He’s something of a throwback contact hitter, at least by MLB standards, who walks considerably more than he strikes out. Indeed, he has just 307 strikeouts in 3,251 career plate appearances. The only major leaguer who had a lower strikeout rate that Yoshida had last year was Minnesota Twins leadoff man Luis Arráez.

Nice addition.

Mets sign José Quintana

The Mets signed an ace in Justin Verlander earlier this week. Yesterday they went out and got an innings-eater by signing lefty José Quintana two a two-year, $26 million contract.

Actually, there’s a chance the Mets are getting more than an innings eater in Quintana as, after a few years in the average-at-best wilderness, 2022 was a bounceback year that reminded us how well that creep used to roll. Quintana posted a 2.93 ERA (137 ERA+) in 32 starts while splitting time between the Cardinals and the Pirates. To be sure, there were some smoke and mirrors involved as he featured a career-low strikeout rate but he also allowed homers at the lowest rate in the National League. It’s also worth noting that Quintana will face much better offenses in the NL East than he did in the NL Central, so don’t necessarily expect a repeat of his 2022 performance.

Still, a nice middle-of-the-rotation addition for Buck Showalter’s boys. Or, if reports that the Mets are still interested in Kodai Senga and Chris Bassitt — or, perhaps, even still in the hunt for Carlos Rodón — Quintana may be one of the better back-end starters in the game come Opening Day.

Cardinals sign Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras and the St. Louis Cardinals have agreed to a five-year, $87.5 million deal. Yadi Molina’s successor is a longtime Cub.

Contreras, 30 hit .243/.349/.466 (128 OPS+) with 22 homers in 113 games in 2022 while earning his third All-Star selection. He is, clearly, an offensive upgrade on Molina and anyone else who donned the tools of ignorance for St. Louis, with the lot of them combining to hit .209/.261/.291 with nine home runs in 2022.

Contreras still has a good arm, but he is a defensive downgrade compared to Molina and friends, particularly when it comes to pitch framing. What’s more, last year he dealt with some health problems which caused him to catch on only 72 of those 113 games, DHing the rest of the time. Overall, though, he’s been a solid and durable backstop over the course of his career and, at times, among the best in the game. All things considered it’d be hard for the Cardinals to better fill the hole left by Molina’s retirement.

Mets acquire Brooks Raley from the Rays

The Winter Meetings isn’t all signings. Sometimes it’s trades. Like the one in which the Mets acquired lefty Brooks Raley from the Rays for pitching prosepct Keyshawn Askew.

Raley, 34, posted a 2.68 ERA (136 ERA+) and a 61/15 K/BB ratio across 53.2 innings this past season with Tampa Bay. He absolutely killed lefties too. Both on the field in the form of his pitching and off the field with his rampant homophobia, manifested in the and a few of his teammates’ removal of the Rays Pride Day logo from their uniforms and caps. We lefties hated that. As I said in my June 6 newsletter:

There have been gay baseball players. There are currently gay baseball players. With the possible exception of Glenn Burke, who played over 40 years ago, none of them have come out during their playing career. There’s a good reason for that. It’s because bigots like Raley feel perfectly comfortable demonstrating their homophobia and no one says boo about it.

Enjoy your time in New York, Brooks, though I understand that there are gay people there, so it might be tough for you. Now, however, Ron DeSantis won’t be around to make you feel better.

Tigers, Atlanta make a deal

Yesterday afternoon Atlanta acquired righty Joe Jiménez and cash from the Tigers for outfield prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy and lefty Jake Higginbotham.

Jiménez, who posted a 3.49 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 77/13 K/BB ratio across 56.2 innings in 62 appearances last year, will help the back end of the Atlanta pen in what will be his free agent walk year.

John Lowe wins the BBWAA Career Excellence Award

Longtime Detroit Free Press reporter John Lowe was named the 2023 winner of the Baseball Writers' Association of America's Career Excellence Award yesterday. It’s the honor which used to be known as the J.G. Taylor Spink award, but was changed because J.G. Taylor Spink was a racist jackass. It’s also the honor which baseball writers refer to when they say someone was inducted into the “writer’s wing” of the Hall of Fame, even if there is no writer’s wing and even if it’s an award as opposed to a formal induction. But hey, let’s let the writers have this one, OK?

Lowe covered baseball from 1979 through 2014, the last 28 of those years as a Tigers beat writer for the Free Press. Before that he covered the Angels and the Dodgers at the Los Angeles Daily News and then spent two years at the Philadelphia Inquirer before heading to Detroit. He is widely credited with creating the Quality Start statistic, for what it’s worth. He was the national BBWAA president in 2010.

Pat Hughes wins the Ford C. Frick Award

Longtime Cubs broadcaster Pat Hughes was named the recipient of the 2023 Ford C. Frick Award, presented annually to a broadcaster for “major contributions to baseball.”

Hughes, 67, who is still active and working, is heading into his 28th season in the booth for Chicago. Prior to joining the Cubs' broadcast team in 1996 he called games for the Brewers and Twins. He has called more than 6,000 Major League games over the course of a 40-year career. In 2016 he became the first Cubs radio man to ever voice a World Series-clinching victory when the team ended its 108-year drought.

Along with BBWAA Award-winner Lowe, he will be honored during the Hall of Fame weekend ceremonies on July 21-24 in Cooperstown, N.Y. 

Other Stuff

“He never should have run for this seat”

One day after losing to Senator Raphael Warnock, the GOP knives have come out for Herschel Walker:

All of this strikes me as the political equivalent of "The Red Sox almost signed [player]." It’s day-after blame-shifting. “Republican operatives” can point to Walker’s missteps and his campaign’s tactics all they want — and God knows there were a ton of them — but the fact remains that the GOP, which to this day continues to refuse to do anything but bow to Donald Trump, hand-picked Walker for the race. These “operatives” could’ve backed Walker’s primary opponent, Gary Black, but almost uniformly refused to do so. Rather, they backed an unqualified nincompoop because they figured a famous Black person with Trump’s imprimatur would be good enough. That they're now parsing the nuances of campaign tactics is about as laughable as it gets. They picked Herschel Walker for cynical reasons and they got exactly what anyone with half a brain would expect.

Rather than talk about Walker’s decisions, or his wife’s decisions, or the decisions to attend this or that rally or say this or that particular thing on Fox News, these “Republican operatives” giving non-attributable quotes about the campaign should maybe ask themselves why they gleefully chose to exploit a man who was clearly damaged, both mentally and politically, because he checked a demographic box that they figured would swing the election. As a friend of mine said to me on Twitter yesterday, “Walker needs help and just spent a year being publicly ridiculed because of Trump and the cult.”

I have no sympathy for Walker here, as he’s a genuinely bad guy, but if that’s how the GOP treats people friendly to it, ask yourself why they would ever govern responsibly with respect to people who don’t blindly pledge it their allegiance.

In related news . . .

While parsing Walker’s election loss on TV on Tuesday night, Fox News’ Sean Hannity blamed the GOP turnout machine, saying “I think Republicans have been unwilling, for whatever reason . . . to vote early and vote by mail.”

Gee, I wonder why?

If I may add another tweet:

A right-wing putsch in Germany? What are the odds?!

German authorities arrested at least 25 people yesterday who they allege were plotting to overthrow the government. The plan was to storm the German Reichstag, arrest lawmakers, execute the Chancellor, and instal a former far-right member of Parliament as the new head of government and — this is the best part — install a prince descended from German nobility as the head of state. There is also a suspicious Russian involved as well.

The plotters are alleged to be part of a terrorist group which prosecutors claim to be influenced by both QAnon and a right-wing German conspiracy group called the ”Citizens of the Reich” who, according to prosecutors, are “united by a hatred of democracy,” and believe that Germany’s post-World War II republic is not a sovereign country but a corporation set up by the victorious Allies and “deep state operatives.” The plotters included many veterans and others with military training. They were heavily armed with illegally-acquired weapons.

Germany is just like us! I mean, apart from the fact that (a) our seditionists, for the most part, acquire their weapons legally, as the U.S. is a mess when it comes to that stuff; and (b) their seditionists look like this guy, Prince Heinrich XIII Reuss of Greiz, who was the would-be head of state in the plot . . .

. . . While our seditionists look like this:

Haha, I bet you thought I was gonna post a pic of some angry, body armor-wearing nutjob from January 6. Nah, that’s apples and oranges. In actual fact Germany’s seditionists and ours aren’t terribly different. In both cases some elites with major, irrational grievances and a hatred of democracy helped radicalize of a bunch of ex-cops and soldiers and some broken-brained conspiracy theorists to do their bidding in an effort to obtain power. Here, though, they did that legally at first, in 2016, and then tried to do it illegally. The Germans didn’t bother with the first step of legally-electing their radical, anti-democratic ringleaders.

One other difference: in Germany, they arrest the elite ringleaders who foment revolutions. Here we continue to act as if they’re still viable political figures, polling their popularity and giving them horse race coverage all while covering their events and fundraisers like any other item on the political social calendar.

Have a great day, everyone.